MY HOPES AND FEARS FOR THE 2016 ELECTION-18th/8/2015

Elections are an important component of governance in any country as they are the form in which people choose how to be governed. The people have the choice to choose the leaders they want and deem fit to offer leadership and as such, Universal adult suffrage exercised by any citizen above 18years by casting votes to choose their next leaders. Uganda has undergone various elections under the multiparty dispensation system and as such, election organizing should be getting better and better by the day.
The last election was conducted in 2011 with President Museveni emerging winner with over 68.4% votes ahead of other candidates. The ruling Party NRM also increased its Legislative muscle by winning 263 in Parliament as against the opposition parties. Dr. Kiiza Besigye the runner up contested the results as being irregular but promised not to seek recourse to courts of law given the earlier dissatisfaction of court ruling on the elections of 2006 and 2001 in which results were upheld. To this end, the 2016 general elections present both hopes and fears as discussed below:

Hopes for the 2016 elections
As the political pressure is rising, there are signs of hope for the 2016 elections represented in various forms.
The opposition in Uganda is seemingly becoming more united than before and this could be a milestone in next year’s elections. Through their association; “The Democratic Alliance” (TDA), opposition parties, civil society organizations and other interest groups are joining hands to field common candidates for elective positions as against the ruling party. One of the issues that has eaten up the voter muscle of the opposition is the disunity in both organizing and ideology and what TDA brings on table is a new form of organizing which gives hope of delivering best opposition candidates as compared to the “Suubi” and IPOD groups of 2011 which left many opposition more broken than built.

There are new entrants into the political scene such as former Premier Amama Mbabazi, Former Makerere University Vice Chancellor Prof. Vanatius Baryamureba among others gives a feeling that contesting for the presidency is everyone’s right so long as once meets the qualifications. The Parliamentary and District elective posts do also have many contesters and thus Ugandans have a variety of individuals to choose from. This is a sign of democracy that people will choose their own from among the many and a hope that Elections are to be contested and not merely shunned.

The involvement of stakeholders by the Electoral Commission in preparation to the general 2016 elections has tremendously improved and as such, this is a positive step towards the attainment of free and fair elections in Uganda. The Electoral commission has consulted CSOs, accredited some to carry out voter sensitization among others, reached out to players to ensure that Uganda conducts a free and fair elections. This is an indicator of public trust in the public institution and as such, one can have hope for free and fair elections.

The high level involvement and participation of the citizens in the electoral process is a positive observation. The citizens are now actively participating in the electoral processes such as the demand for free and fair elections, call on MPs to account before they promise, engaging in public policy debates and the fact that they can take bold decisions on the type of leaders.
Fears for the 2016 Elections
Much as the above presents some hope for the elections, there are a number of pending issues which if not resolved, the 2016 election may be an enigma.
Rejection of free and fair electoral reforms by the Parliament while passing the constitutional amendments is one of the most pressing issues. The citizens of Uganda generated a citizens’ compact through consultations on what they would want to see change to foster free and fair election. The citizens presented about 19 issues in the compact which were core to free and fair elections and now that these were rejected, it creates so much fear that the elections will not be free and fair as the citizens’ exercise of their right to be governed has been ignored.
In a just concluded opinion poll by Research World International, over 55% of the voters indicate that the 2016 elections will not be free and fair and this percentage is too big and raises alarm. What then this means is that there will be difficulty in accepting the results from the elections a thing that may spark off violence and turbulences.

The increased presence and power of the incumbency also brings a new challenge. A few months to the elections, President Museveni’s posters are already all over the streets and the Electoral Commission has not acted at all whereas it has gone ahead to tear down any other poster other than Museveni’s. Museveni continues to send unsolicited messages to individuals seeking for support way before campaigns are declared open and this is happening while Uganda Communication Commission and Electoral Commission are watching powerlessly.

Voter bribery has continued to escalate in various forms. In the Research World International poll, it is noted that over 59% voters indeed voted for the candidate who bribed them; this means that voters are most likely to vote for those who bribe them thus undermining the principle of fairness. The President has continued to distribute money in sacks and ministers, L.C. V chairpersons have openly asked the citizens to vote for the President. This should create worry and fear as there will never be free and fair elections with this amount of commercialization of polls.

Michael Aboneka Junior